Péter Magyar is inheriting the ruins of a democracy Orbán spent sixteen years hollowing out. Will Britain learn Hungary's lesson the easy way or learn our own the hard way?
The closing question is spot on, and the Hungary example makes the cost of getting it wrong brutally concrete. Magyar needs a two-thirds supermajority just to begin undoing what a single party built over sixteen years using the tools the system handed it. That alone should terrify anyone watching British politics.
But I think the lesson goes further than prevention. The structural vulnerabilities you identify — FPTP delivering 63% of seats on 34% of the vote, weak campaign finance enforcement, institutions already under rhetorical attack — aren't bugs in the British system. They are the system. They exist because an uncodified constitution held together by convention offers no hard barrier against a determined actor who decides to stop playing fair.
Orbán didn't break Hungarian democracy from outside. He used its own machinery. The question for Britain is not whether someone could do the same here, but what specifically would stop them. Right now the honest answer is: convention, tradition, and the hope that nobody tries. That is not a constitution. It is a prayer.
Absolutely right, Paul. We are dangerously exposed. You may wish to keep an eye out for a new report - published towards the end of this month by 99% and endorsed by partners across the democracy sector - setting out how our constitutional arrangements should be reinforced to mitigate these risks. (I will be writing about it here too.)
Will keep an eye out for that, Mark. I've been writing about the same problem from the other end — less diagnosing the risk, more trying to design what would actually stop it. Looking forward to seeing where your report lands.
You faith in Magyar is touching. But Orban was the darling if the West once. Oxford educated. Familiar with the institutions and theory of European politics. Pro-EU. Funded by George Soros, whom he would later use as antisemitic bait to gain electoral advantage.
As you write rightly point out, Magyar was key to all that until very recently. I hope he's genuine in his repentance, but actions speak louder than words. To describe him as "opposition" is generous. He is Hungary's Conservative party to Orban's Reform.
Although many progressives in Hungary will have held their noses and voted for him in the hope of getting Orban out, the bulk of the shift has come from Fidesz's traditional supporters - rural, conservative, religious - who've simply had enough of Orban's failing economy. They ignored the corruption in a corrupt country until prices started to rise almost weekly.
That block don't want liberalism. They just want cheap gas and EU money. Magyar knows that too.
I’ll ignore the condescending opener. The article made no comment about liberalism. It focussed on Orbán’s systematic and corrupt deconstruction of Hungary’s democratic guardrails, the Hungarian people’s overwhelming rejection of that today, and the huge task that lies ahead to reverse it. You are right that Fidesz supporters have not been as concerned by Orbán’s corruption as the population at large, but that population at large has just shown itself to be the much greater force…and they want a shift back towards the rule of law and the institutions that facilitate that. That is a view shared by the vast majority of people here too - which is why the article suggests they should take heed and ensure our current decrepit voting system does not deprive them of the future they want.
The warning for the UK and other European nations such as France and Germany is understood, but you talk as if it's certain Magyar will *reverse* the democratic backsliding, as opposed to sanitise or even exploit it.
That is something only time will tell. On past performance I'm simply saying that's far from certain.
So what, exactly, is the lesson? It's not that institutional capture leads to a popular revolt. It didn't for 16 years. What it led to was unable to do was counter economic hardship, and that swung it. The same is true in the US. Shoot protestors, cancel health insurance support, split up families, militarise the streets - no problem. $4 gas? You're out.
In the words of Bill Clinton, it's the economy, stupid. If only people cared about democracy we wouldn't be in this mess.
Sadly, I know much about the lack of salience democracy has with voters - you are right about that. And you are right that politicians sometimes don’t deliver on their campaign promises - but I think it’s a bit early to be damning Magyar with that cynicism. It is easy to be cynical and drain what little hope there is in people’s hearts for positive progress. I’d rather encourage it, fan it, build it into action, action that might deliver some good - or at least arrest the slide toward corrupt authoritarianism that seems to be the default path right now. The lesson is that people DO still have the power to determine their future but that they need to use it, sooner rather than later, because later it will be very much more difficult to secure the future most of us want.
Finally!!! My congratulations to Magyar and I hope that that beautiful nation finally will be a strong and useful part of the European struggle to defend itself against wide boys of the Orban type. And with that the worse criminals; Xi JinPing, Putin and Trump. Here in the UK Farage and his ilk.
The closing question is spot on, and the Hungary example makes the cost of getting it wrong brutally concrete. Magyar needs a two-thirds supermajority just to begin undoing what a single party built over sixteen years using the tools the system handed it. That alone should terrify anyone watching British politics.
But I think the lesson goes further than prevention. The structural vulnerabilities you identify — FPTP delivering 63% of seats on 34% of the vote, weak campaign finance enforcement, institutions already under rhetorical attack — aren't bugs in the British system. They are the system. They exist because an uncodified constitution held together by convention offers no hard barrier against a determined actor who decides to stop playing fair.
Orbán didn't break Hungarian democracy from outside. He used its own machinery. The question for Britain is not whether someone could do the same here, but what specifically would stop them. Right now the honest answer is: convention, tradition, and the hope that nobody tries. That is not a constitution. It is a prayer.
Absolutely right, Paul. We are dangerously exposed. You may wish to keep an eye out for a new report - published towards the end of this month by 99% and endorsed by partners across the democracy sector - setting out how our constitutional arrangements should be reinforced to mitigate these risks. (I will be writing about it here too.)
Will keep an eye out for that, Mark. I've been writing about the same problem from the other end — less diagnosing the risk, more trying to design what would actually stop it. Looking forward to seeing where your report lands.
You faith in Magyar is touching. But Orban was the darling if the West once. Oxford educated. Familiar with the institutions and theory of European politics. Pro-EU. Funded by George Soros, whom he would later use as antisemitic bait to gain electoral advantage.
As you write rightly point out, Magyar was key to all that until very recently. I hope he's genuine in his repentance, but actions speak louder than words. To describe him as "opposition" is generous. He is Hungary's Conservative party to Orban's Reform.
Although many progressives in Hungary will have held their noses and voted for him in the hope of getting Orban out, the bulk of the shift has come from Fidesz's traditional supporters - rural, conservative, religious - who've simply had enough of Orban's failing economy. They ignored the corruption in a corrupt country until prices started to rise almost weekly.
That block don't want liberalism. They just want cheap gas and EU money. Magyar knows that too.
I’ll ignore the condescending opener. The article made no comment about liberalism. It focussed on Orbán’s systematic and corrupt deconstruction of Hungary’s democratic guardrails, the Hungarian people’s overwhelming rejection of that today, and the huge task that lies ahead to reverse it. You are right that Fidesz supporters have not been as concerned by Orbán’s corruption as the population at large, but that population at large has just shown itself to be the much greater force…and they want a shift back towards the rule of law and the institutions that facilitate that. That is a view shared by the vast majority of people here too - which is why the article suggests they should take heed and ensure our current decrepit voting system does not deprive them of the future they want.
Any condescension was unintended.
The warning for the UK and other European nations such as France and Germany is understood, but you talk as if it's certain Magyar will *reverse* the democratic backsliding, as opposed to sanitise or even exploit it.
That is something only time will tell. On past performance I'm simply saying that's far from certain.
So what, exactly, is the lesson? It's not that institutional capture leads to a popular revolt. It didn't for 16 years. What it led to was unable to do was counter economic hardship, and that swung it. The same is true in the US. Shoot protestors, cancel health insurance support, split up families, militarise the streets - no problem. $4 gas? You're out.
In the words of Bill Clinton, it's the economy, stupid. If only people cared about democracy we wouldn't be in this mess.
Sadly, I know much about the lack of salience democracy has with voters - you are right about that. And you are right that politicians sometimes don’t deliver on their campaign promises - but I think it’s a bit early to be damning Magyar with that cynicism. It is easy to be cynical and drain what little hope there is in people’s hearts for positive progress. I’d rather encourage it, fan it, build it into action, action that might deliver some good - or at least arrest the slide toward corrupt authoritarianism that seems to be the default path right now. The lesson is that people DO still have the power to determine their future but that they need to use it, sooner rather than later, because later it will be very much more difficult to secure the future most of us want.
I very much hope you are right, even if it is like hoping Kemi Badenoch will clear up after Liz Truss!
Finally!!! My congratulations to Magyar and I hope that that beautiful nation finally will be a strong and useful part of the European struggle to defend itself against wide boys of the Orban type. And with that the worse criminals; Xi JinPing, Putin and Trump. Here in the UK Farage and his ilk.
Interesting article on democracy!!!
**
We in the U.K. have been failed by our Tory -Labour -Lid-Dem Govt parties for many years
On looking back corruption was hidden well within the Govt parties the
older members ruling the roost was and is dangers for U.K. now.
*
Now public are asking Qs of our party M.P. and Minister we get a better know
how of what the path the party's will take so vote Accordingly now.
*
Problem I have is the party Whips ordering our elected M.P. to vote for policy
that are NO good to us British people and trash our way of life in the U.K. forever.
*
One person making the policy to pass is Not democracy at all the whips become
dictator in the H.O. Com and this must stop fully I have emailed Govt on the whips
problems voter do not like now.
*
We will see if the U.K. people what a big change for th emain23 parties in our Govt
and let Reform-or-Greens have a go at runing the U.K.